Toledo vs Eastern Michigan
Toledo visit Eastern Michigan in Week 7. The model favors Toledo by 14.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these MAC sides by 9.1 rating points, Toledo at -2.1 (rank 82) against Eastern Michigan at -11.2 (rank 113), and the market barely argues. The model gives Toledo 66%, the consensus line lands at Eastern Michigan +6.5 for an implied 65%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Toledo at -215, or 68%. A projected margin of 6.7 for Toledo sits almost exactly on the 6.5 spread, so model and market are effectively stacked rather than split.
The unit ranks reinforce the lean: Toledo's offense (#93) and defense (#69) both outrank Eastern Michigan's #110 offense and #104 defense. Form is murkier. Toledo is 4-2 with a 49-48 escape past Temple and a flat 8-23 loss to Buffalo, while Eastern Michigan is 4-3, blown out at Michigan State (7-35) and Wisconsin (10-54) but 3-0 in recent MAC-adjacent play including wins at Massachusetts and Akron.
Series history tilts hard toward Toledo at 9-2, though the 2024 meeting went 29-28, a one-point result that undercuts the ratings gap. Season sims project Toledo for 7.9 wins and Eastern Michigan for 6.4, with neither carrying Playoff equity.
Model, consensus line and exchange all converge on Toledo by roughly a touchdown, leaving little daylight to trade.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Toledo's win price; Eastern Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Toledo is favored, below it Eastern Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Toledo vs Eastern Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Toledo vs Eastern Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Toledo and Eastern Michigan play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Eastern Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 14.2 (81% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Toledo lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →