Toledo vs Ball State
Toledo visit Ball State in Week 5. The model favors Toledo by 19.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these MAC sides sharply: Toledo sits at 0.3 (rank 68), Ball State at -25 (rank 135), a gap that projects Toledo by 22.9 points and a 92% win probability. The market is a touch more cautious, pricing Ball State +19.5 for an 88% Toledo implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange lands between the two at Toledo -980 (91%). The 3.4-point spread between the model margin and the consensus line is the standing disagreement, with the model asking for more than the books will post.
The unit ranks reinforce the divide: Toledo grades #67 offense and #68 defense against Ball State's #133 and #133, a two-sided deficit rather than one weak phase. Series history is short but one-directional, Toledo 2-0 including a 38-9 result in 2025. Form tracks the ratings too: Toledo is 3-1 with a lone 20-30 loss at Michigan State and a 49-48 win over Temple, while Ball State is 1-3, the win over Stony Brook flanked by losses of 3-56, 15-51 and 13-26.
Season simulations frame the stakes, with Toledo projected for 9 wins and Ball State for 3.5 across 10,000 runs, neither carrying meaningful Playoff equity at 5.7% and 0%.
The model plants Toledo well past the market line, and both the exchange and the ratings gap back the double-digit read.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Toledo's win price; Ball State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Toledo is favored, below it Ball State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Toledo vs Ball State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Toledo vs Ball State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Toledo and Ball State play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Ball State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 19.7 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Toledo lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →