Redshirt
Matchup preview

Toledo vs Ball State

Toledo visit Ball State in Week 5. The model favors Toledo by 16.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
84%
16%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Price history is still building for these markets. Check back as the season fills in.

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Toledo's win price; Ball State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Toledo is favored, below it Ball State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#87SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#136
#52FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#132
1646EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1010
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
ToledoBall Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Toledo lead 9-2
Toledo have won the last 4
20152025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
38-9
Toledo
at Toledo
2023
13-6
Toledo
at Ball State
2022
28-21
Toledo
at Toledo
2021
22-12
Toledo
at Ball State
2020
27-24
Ball State
at Toledo
2019
52-14
Ball State
at Ball State
2018
45-13
Toledo
at Toledo
2017
58-17
Toledo
at Ball State
2016
37-19
Toledo
at Toledo
2015
24-10
Toledo
at Ball State
2014
34-23
Toledo
at Toledo
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Toledo vs Ball State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Toledo vs Ball State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Toledo and Ball State play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Ball State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Toledo by 16.5 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Toledo lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →