Tennessee vs Georgia Tech
Tennessee visit Georgia Tech in Week 2. The model favors Tennessee by 13.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear mismatch: Tennessee rates 19.9 (12th) against Georgia Tech at 1.7 (66th), an 18.2-point ratings gap that projects the Volunteers by 15.8. The model gives Tennessee an 83% win probability, and the exchange sits close behind, with ProphetX offering Tennessee -445 (82%) and Georgia Tech +405 (20%). The consensus spread of 12.8 and its 78% implied number are the softest read on the visitors, leaving three points of daylight between the model line and the market line.
The unit ranks point to where the edge lives. Tennessee's offense ranks 2nd against a Georgia Tech defense at 58th, while the Volunteer defense (36th) faces a Yellow Jacket offense down at 76th. Early results sharpen the picture: Tennessee opened by burying Furman 56-9, while Georgia Tech dropped a 14-13 decision to Colorado. With a posted total of 55.5, the scoring projection leans on the Tennessee offense carrying the margin.
Season-long context adds distance. Tennessee's simulation projects 7.8 wins, 30.7% Playoff odds and 2.6% title equity against 1.1% in the market; Georgia Tech models to 5 wins, 0.9% Playoff and no title path. The lone series meeting, a 42-41 Tennessee escape in 2017, is the only prior data point and offers little beyond the head-to-head record.
The numbers stack toward Tennessee, with the model's 15.8-point margin sitting three points beyond the market's 12.8.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tennessee's win price; Georgia Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tennessee is favored, below it Georgia Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tennessee vs Georgia Tech game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tennessee vs Georgia Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tennessee and Georgia Tech play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Georgia Tech.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tennessee by 13.4 (79% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tennessee lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →