Syracuse vs UConn
Syracuse visit UConn in Week 5. The model favors UConn by 5.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 2.5 points of rating, Syracuse at -1.2 (74th) against UConn at -3.7 (85th), and the projected margin lands at Syracuse by 0.1, effectively nothing. The model splits the win probability 50/50. The market disagrees sharply: UConn +6.5 with a 50.5 total implies UConn 35% and Syracuse 65%, pricing the ACC visitor as a near-touchdown favorite on a game the ratings read as a toss-up. That gap between a coin flip and a six-and-a-half point spread is the entire matchup.
The unit ranks explain the tension. Syracuse pairs a weak offense (#97) with a middling defense (#51), while UConn brings a better offense (#79) against a soft defense (#93). Series history is thin but one-sided, Syracuse 2-0, including a 27-20 win in the 2025 meeting. Season paths diverge: UConn projects to 6 wins, Syracuse to 4.3, with both at 0.1% Playoff odds and 0% title odds.
Results add texture. Syracuse hammered New Hampshire 66-3 but lost to California 18-21 and at Pittsburgh 13-27. UConn blew out Lafayette 56-7 and won at Southern Miss 48-20, with losses to Maryland 14-38 and at Miami (OH) 21-24.
The model calls it a coin flip at 50/50 while the market prices Syracuse as a near-touchdown favorite, a wide gap on a game the ratings see as even.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Syracuse's win price; UConn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Syracuse is favored, below it UConn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Syracuse vs UConn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Syracuse vs UConn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Syracuse and UConn play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at UConn.
Who is favored?
The model projects UConn by 5.9 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Syracuse lead 5-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →