South Florida vs UTSA
South Florida visit UTSA in Week 6. The model favors UTSA by 3.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
This is a rare case where the model and the market pick different teams. SP+ rates South Florida 3.9 (56th) against UTSA at -1 (73rd) and projects South Florida by 2.5, a 56% edge. The consensus line flips that entirely, posting UTSA -7 with a 66% implied win probability, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to UTSA -255 (72%) against South Florida +235 (30%). That is a double-digit gap in implied probability between model and price.
The unit ranks explain part of the tension. UTSA's offense (44th) grades ahead of South Florida's (49th), but its defense sits 99th against South Florida's 61st, which is where the model's projected margin originates. The lone prior meeting adds weight on South Florida's side: the 2025 game went 55-23, leaving the series 1-1.
Results track the ratings. South Florida is 4-1 with road wins at Army (28-24) and Bowling Green (14-6) and a 13-17 loss to Temple. UTSA is 4-1, its blemish a 6-30 loss at Texas, with tight wins at Texas State (31-26) and Rice (16-14). Season sims give South Florida 8.7 projected wins to UTSA's 8.
The model and the market sit on opposite sides: SP+ makes South Florida a 2.5-point favorite while the board prices UTSA -7.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Florida vs UTSA game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Florida vs UTSA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Florida and UTSA play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 8, 2026 at UTSA.
Who is favored?
The model projects UTSA by 3.7 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →