South Florida vs Army
South Florida visit Army in Week 2. The model favors Army by 0.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Army 2.2 (63rd) against South Florida at -3.1 (76th), a gap that projects Army by 7.7 points and a 68 percent win probability. The consensus market is more cautious, pricing Army -3.5 with a 46.8 total and an implied 58 percent. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference at Army -166 (62 percent) and South Florida +158 (39 percent). Every source leans Army, but the model's 68 percent sits well above the market's 58, marking South Florida as the side the numbers deem slightly overpriced.
The unit ranks explain the edge: Army's offense (58th) and defense (63rd) both outrank South Florida's offense (69th) and, more sharply, its defense (90th). Early results offer thin signal, with Army routing Bryant 59-3 and South Florida grinding past Florida International 19-9. Season simulations keep the two close on floor, projecting 7.5 wins for Army and 7.6 for South Florida, but Army carries the stronger ceiling at 7.6 percent Playoff odds against 2.7 percent. Neither shows a title path, and the lean is Army, with the model implying more value on the favorite than the 3.5 spread suggests.
The model likes Army harder than the market does, framing this line as slightly rich for South Florida.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Florida's win price; Army's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Florida is favored, below it Army is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Florida vs Army game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Florida vs Army market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Florida and Army play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Army.
Who is favored?
The model projects Army by 0.7 (52% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →