Rutgers vs Maryland
Rutgers visit Maryland in Week 7. The model favors Maryland by 5.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this a close hold for Maryland, rating the Terrapins -2 (rank 81) against Rutgers at -5.3 (rank 94), a 3.3-point edge that projects to a 5.7-point margin and a 64% Maryland win probability. The market sits a touch lighter at Maryland -4.5 with a 57.5 total, implying 61%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes back toward the model at Maryland -182 (65%) and Rutgers +176 (36%). Across all three sources the spread on Maryland's edge is narrow, roughly 61% to 65%, leaving little disagreement to trade against.
The unit splits complicate the lean. Rutgers grades better on offense at #52 to Maryland's #77, but its defense ranks #125 against Maryland's #89, the widest gap on the board. Series history favors neither cleanly: Maryland leads 7-5, yet Rutgers took the last meeting in 2025 by 35-20.
Results add caution to the Maryland price. The Terrapins opened with wins over Hampton 62-0 and at UConn 38-14, then dropped four straight, including 3-54 to UCLA, 23-48 at Nebraska and 16-45 at Ohio State. Rutgers is 1-4, its lone win 58-7 over Howard, with losses by 16 to Massachusetts and 32 to Indiana. Season simulations project 4.4 wins for Maryland and 3 for Rutgers.
Model, market and exchange all cluster Maryland near 61-65%, but two reeling defenses and a split series leave thin margin.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rutgers's win price; Maryland's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rutgers is favored, below it Maryland is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Rutgers vs Maryland game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rutgers vs Maryland market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Rutgers and Maryland play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Maryland.
Who is favored?
The model projects Maryland by 5.2 (62% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Maryland lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →