Rice vs East Carolina
Rice visit East Carolina in Week 6. The model favors East Carolina by 15.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market lean the same way but not by the same amount. SP+ rates East Carolina at -2.8 (79th) against Rice at -15.1 (119th), a 12.3-point ratings gap that drives an 81% win probability and a projected 14.7-point margin. The consensus line sits at East Carolina -10 with a 47.5 total, implying 73%, while the ProphetX exchange shows East Carolina -340, or 77%. Every input favors the home team, but SP+ is the most aggressive, pricing the margin nearly five points above the posted spread.
The unit ranks reinforce the edge: East Carolina grades 92nd on offense and 69th on defense, against Rice at 119th and 116th. Form tilts the same direction. Rice is 1-4, with its lone win 31-3 over Houston Christian and losses including 0-52 at Notre Dame and 14-16 to UTSA. East Carolina is 2-2, taking Old Dominion 20-17 and North Carolina Central 42-9. The series offers Rice its only counterweight: East Carolina trails 0-1 all time after a 24-17 loss in 2023.
Projections cap the context, with Rice simulated at 3.3 wins and East Carolina at 6.6, neither carrying meaningful Playoff equity.
SP+ prices East Carolina well clear of the market, flagging the home side as the stronger value on the exchange.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rice's win price; East Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rice is favored, below it East Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Rice vs East Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rice vs East Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Rice and East Carolina play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at East Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects East Carolina by 15.7 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Rice lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →