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Matchup preview

Purdue vs Illinois

Purdue visit Illinois in Week 5. The model favors Illinois by 15.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
17%
83%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Price history is still building for these markets. Check back as the season fills in.

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Purdue's win price; Illinois's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Purdue is favored, below it Illinois is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#75SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#33
#86FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#30
1227EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1595
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
PurdueIllinoissolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Purdue lead 8-4
Illinois have won the last 2
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
43-27
Illinois
at Purdue
2024
50-49
Illinois
at Illinois
2023
44-19
Purdue
at Purdue
2022
31-24
Purdue
at Illinois
2021
13-9
Purdue
at Purdue
2020
31-24
Purdue
at Illinois
2019
24-6
Illinois
at Purdue
2018
46-7
Purdue
at Illinois
2017
29-10
Purdue
at Purdue
2016
34-31
Purdue
at Illinois
2015
48-14
Illinois
at Purdue
2014
38-27
Purdue
at Illinois
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Purdue vs Illinois game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Purdue vs Illinois market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Purdue and Illinois play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Illinois.

Who is favored?

The model projects Illinois by 15.6 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Purdue lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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