Oregon State vs Colorado State
Oregon State visit Colorado State in Week 5. The model favors Oregon State by 12.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit nearly on top of each other. SP+ separates the sides by 8.5 rating points, Oregon State at 1.2 (rank 65) against Colorado State at -7.3 (rank 98), and projects Oregon State by 6.1. The consensus line lands at Colorado State +6.3 with a total of 61.5, and the implied win probabilities are functionally identical: the model gives Oregon State 64%, the two-book market 65%. The only divergence is on the ProphetX exchange, where Oregon State -230 implies 70% and Colorado State +215 implies 32%, pricing the road side four to five points richer than both the model and the consensus line.
The unit ranks favor the visitor where it matters. Oregon State's defense (#56) outranks Colorado State's (#116) by a wide margin, while the offenses are close, #67 to #70. Results reinforce the split: Oregon State's losses came against Houston (20-33) and Texas Tech (24-35) before wins over Montana (52-17) and UTEP (33-7). Colorado State beat Wyoming (35-13) and Southern Utah (58-24) but was outscored by BYU (23-41) and at UTSA (45-59), the latter a defensive collapse consistent with that #116 rank.
The series is thin, Oregon State 1-0, the 2024 meeting a 39-31 Oregon State win. Season simulations keep both sides mid-tier: 6.1 projected wins for Oregon State, 5 for Colorado State, with neither cracking 0.2% Playoff odds.
Model and consensus agree on Oregon State near 65%, but the exchange price at 70% looks stretched against the defensive-edge case.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oregon State vs Colorado State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oregon State vs Colorado State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oregon State and Colorado State play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Colorado State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon State by 12.6 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →