North Texas vs Tulsa
North Texas visit Tulsa in Week 5. The model favors Tulsa by 0.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 2.3 rating points, Tulsa at -3.4 (rank 83) over North Texas at -5.7 (rank 91), and projects Tulsa by 4.7 for a 61% model win probability. The market is far more cautious: the consensus line of Tulsa -1.2 implies 53%, and the ProphetX exchange is nearly a coin flip at Tulsa -105 (51%) against North Texas +102 (50%). That gap between a 61% model read and a 51% exchange price is the central tension in this matchup.
The unit ranks explain the divergence. North Texas pairs the sharper offense (#47) with the worst defense on the board (#120), while Tulsa leans on defense (#60) behind a modest offense (#101). Results back the profiles: North Texas has cleared 44 points twice but conceded 52 and 49 in both losses, and Tulsa has won three of four, including 24-10 over Oklahoma State, with its only loss 6-34 at Arkansas.
The series adds a wrinkle the ratings ignore: North Texas is 2-0 all-time and won the 2024 meeting 52-20. With a projected total of 57.3, the model favors Tulsa's steadier floor, but the market's tighter price reflects North Texas offensive upside against a shaky defensive backdrop.
SP+ backs Tulsa at 61% and by 4.7, but the exchange near 51% and North Texas's 2-0 series edge keep this close.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Texas's win price; Tulsa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Texas is favored, below it Tulsa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Texas vs Tulsa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Texas vs Tulsa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Texas and Tulsa play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 2, 2026 at Tulsa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulsa by 0.8 (52% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
North Texas lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →