North Carolina vs Duke
North Carolina visit Duke in Week 7. The model favors Duke by 5.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market lean the same way but differ on conviction. SP+ rates Duke 8.2 (45th) against North Carolina at 4.9 (56th), a 3.3-point edge that projects to Duke by 5.7 and a 64% win probability. The consensus line is softer at Duke -3.2, implying 58%, while the ProphetX exchange sits in between at Duke -156 (61%) versus North Carolina +148 (40%). The gap between the model's 64% and the market's 58% to 61% marks Duke as the side the numbers favor more than the price does.
Unit ranks frame the matchup: Duke's offense (#41) outranks North Carolina's offense (#71), while North Carolina's defense (#35) grades ahead of Duke's (#50). Results reinforce the split. Duke is 4-1 with wins over Tulane, Illinois, Stanford and William & Mary before a 25-28 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina sits 3-2, with road wins at TCU (15-10) and Pittsburgh (21-17) offset by losses to Clemson and Notre Dame. The 47.5 total reflects two defense-led profiles.
Series history is tight at Duke 5-7 against North Carolina, though Duke took the last meeting 32-25 in 2025. Season simulations separate them: Duke projects 7.6 wins and 4.3% Playoff odds against North Carolina's 6.3 wins and 0.9%.
Duke is the model's clear side at 64% and -5.7, a touch stronger than the market's 58% to 61% read.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Carolina's win price; Duke's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Carolina is favored, below it Duke is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Carolina vs Duke game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Carolina vs Duke market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Carolina and Duke play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Duke.
Who is favored?
The model projects Duke by 5.5 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
North Carolina lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →