Matchup preview
New Mexico vs Hawai'i
New Mexico visit Hawai'i in Week 7. The model favors New Mexico by 9.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#58SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#98
#78FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#87
1494EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1459
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 3-3
20152024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
More Week 7 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the New Mexico vs Hawai'i game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the New Mexico vs Hawai'i market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do New Mexico and Hawai'i play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Hawai'i.
Who is favored?
The model projects New Mexico by 9.5 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 3-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →
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