Navy vs Florida Atlantic
Navy visit Florida Atlantic in Week 2. The model favors Navy by 2.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Navy rates 3.6 (55th) against Florida Atlantic's -12.2 (111th), and the model projects Navy by 13.4 with a 79% win probability. The market is far more cautious, pricing Florida Atlantic at +4.8 and implying a 39% chance of the upset, while the ProphetX exchange sits between the two at Navy -190 (66%) and Florida Atlantic +180 (36%). That 18-point gap between model and market win probability is the central disagreement, and the roughly nine-point difference between the projected 13.4 margin and the 4.8 line is where the case for Navy concentrates.
The unit ranks point the same direction: Navy's offense (48th) and defense (72nd) both outrank Florida Atlantic's (73rd offense, 133rd defense), with that defensive number the standout concern against a 58.5 total. Series history is short but one-sided, Navy leading 2-0 and taking the 2025 meeting 42-32. Early results add texture: Navy opened with a 42-15 win over Towson, while Florida Atlantic was buried 66-21 at Florida. Season sims give Navy 7.6 projected wins to Florida Atlantic's 5.1.
The model backs Navy well beyond where the market and exchange price it, and the ratings, units and early results all lean the same way.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Navy's win price; Florida Atlantic's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Navy is favored, below it Florida Atlantic is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Navy vs Florida Atlantic game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Navy vs Florida Atlantic market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Navy and Florida Atlantic play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Florida Atlantic.
Who is favored?
The model projects Navy by 2.7 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Navy lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →