Navy vs Air Force
Navy visit Air Force in Week 5. The model favors Air Force by 3.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by three-tenths of a point, rating Navy at -3.7 (86th) and Air Force at -3.4 (84th), and the projected margin of 2.7 points for Air Force lines up cleanly with the consensus -3 and total of 46.3. Model win probability (Air Force 56%, Navy 44%) and market-implied odds (57/43) read as the same number, so there is no daylight between the model and the two-book line.
The unit ranks explain the tightness: Navy offense 78, defense 95; Air Force offense 74, defense 94. Neither side profiles ahead by more than a rounding error. The divergence sits on the exchange, where ProphetX prices Air Force at -150 (60%) and Navy at +140 (42%), a steeper home number than either the model or the consensus supports. That gap between the 56% model figure and the 60% exchange price tilts value toward Navy.
Series and form add texture. Navy leads 2-1 and took the 2025 meeting 34-31. This season Navy is 1-2 (42-15 over Towson, losses at Florida Atlantic and UAB) while Air Force is 2-1 (34-0 over Duquesne, 32-38 to North Dakota State, 36-33 at Nevada). Season sims project 7.3 wins for Air Force against 5.4 for Navy.
Model and market both give Air Force a coin-flip edge, but the exchange price on the home side runs steeper than the numbers justify.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Navy vs Air Force game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Navy vs Air Force market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Navy and Air Force play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Air Force.
Who is favored?
The model projects Air Force by 3.2 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Air Force lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →