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Matchup preview

Navy vs Air Force

Navy visit Air Force in Week 5. The model favors Air Force by 1.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
45%
55%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Navy83%-2 ptsvsAir Force17%+2 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Navy favoredAir Force favoredSep 20Sep 21

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Navy's win price; Air Force's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Navy is favored, below it Air Force is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#76SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#81
#68FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#96
1575EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1386
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
NavyAir Forcesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Air Force lead 7-5
Navy have won the last 2
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
34-31
Navy
at Navy
2024
34-7
Navy
at Air Force
2023
17-6
Air Force
at Navy
2022
13-10
Air Force
at Air Force
2021
23-3
Air Force
at Navy
2020
40-7
Air Force
at Air Force
2019
34-25
Navy
at Navy
2018
35-7
Air Force
at Air Force
2017
48-45
Navy
at Navy
2016
28-14
Air Force
at Air Force
2015
33-11
Navy
at Navy
2014
30-21
Air Force
at Air Force
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Navy vs Air Force game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Navy vs Air Force market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Navy and Air Force play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Air Force.

Who is favored?

The model projects Air Force by 1.9 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Air Force lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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