Missouri vs Kansas
Missouri visit Kansas in Week 2. The model favors Missouri by 9.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Missouri 12.9 (22nd) against Kansas at 7.5 (41st), a 5.4-point edge that projects Missouri by 3 and a 57 percent win probability. The market pushes harder in the same direction: Kansas +5.5 and a 50.3 total imply 63 percent for Missouri, while the ProphetX exchange stretches it to -205, or 67 percent. Every source agrees on the favorite; the disagreement is degree, with the model the most cautious of the three.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Missouri grades out ahead on both sides, offense 36th to Kansas 38th and defense 21st to 56th, and that defensive gap is the widest split on the board. Series history is thin but one-sided: Kansas is 0-1 against Missouri, with the lone meeting a 42-31 Missouri win in 2025.
Week 1 results offer matched blowouts, Missouri 54-14 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kansas 51-6 over Long Island University, so neither has been tested. Season projections track close, Kansas at 6.8 wins to Missouri 6.4, but Missouri carries the stronger Playoff (8.4 to 5.6 percent) and title (0.5 to 0.2 percent) marks, with the market pricing Missouri's title path at 0.7 percent.
Model likes Missouri at 57 percent, but market and exchange price the road SEC team well beyond that.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Missouri's win price; Kansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Missouri is favored, below it Kansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Missouri vs Kansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Missouri vs Kansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Missouri and Kansas play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Kansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Missouri by 9.6 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Missouri lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →