Middle Tennessee vs Kansas
Middle Tennessee visit Kansas in Week 5. The model favors Kansas by 20.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit almost on top of each other here. SP+ projects Kansas by 19.4 points and assigns an 88% win probability, while the consensus line of Kansas -18.5 implies 87%. The ProphetX exchange pushes slightly further, with Kansas at -970 (91%) and Middle Tennessee at +840 (11%). A point of implied probability separates the two sources, so there is no pricing edge to exploit: the sub-point gap between a 19.4 projection and an 18.5 line is noise.
The ratings gap explains the alignment. Kansas rates 1 (66th) against Middle Tennessee at -16 (122nd), a 17-point separation that tracks the projected margin closely. Unit ranks reinforce it across the board: Kansas offense 70 and defense 67 both clear Middle Tennessee's offense (123) and defense (118). Full-season simulations are more muted, projecting 4.5 wins for Kansas against 5.2 for Middle Tennessee, with neither team given a path to the Playoff.
Results add texture. Middle Tennessee is 2-2, its losses by two at Marshall (26-28) and by ten at Jacksonville State (13-23), showing the Blue Raiders keep games close. Kansas is 1-2, the lone win 51-6 over Long Island University and both losses coming at home to Missouri (21-38) and Arizona State (17-24). The total of 49.5 frames a game the favorite is expected to control without pulling far clear.
Model and market agree tightly on Kansas by roughly 19, and the 17-point ratings gap leaves no exchange edge.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Middle Tennessee vs Kansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Middle Tennessee vs Kansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Middle Tennessee and Kansas play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Kansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas by 20.4 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →