Memphis vs Tulane
Memphis visit Tulane in Week 7. The model favors Memphis by 12.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ opens a wide gap: Memphis rates 7.6 (48th), Tulane -7.6 (102nd), a 15.2-point spread that projects Memphis by 12.8 and a 78% win probability. Both markets land softer. The consensus line sets Tulane +6.8 with a 55.5 total and implies Memphis at 66%, while the ProphetX exchange offers Memphis -240, or 71%. The model therefore sits 7 to 12 points above the market read, the clearest disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Memphis pairs the 26th offense with a 76th defense; Tulane carries the 114th offense and a 79th defense, so the matchup tilts on Memphis moving the ball against a soft stop. Form agrees: Memphis is 5-1, with a 59-8 win at Charlotte and a 38-13 result over UAB, its lone loss 20-38 at Boise State. Tulane is 2-3, scoring 3 at Duke and 17 at Army in losses.
The series stays close at 7-5 Memphis, and Tulane took the last meeting 38-32 in 2025, which tempers the ratings gap. The simulations still split them: Memphis projects 9 wins with 12.7% Playoff odds, Tulane 5.3 wins and 0%.
The model backs Memphis harder than either market, pricing a 12.8-point edge the consensus line shaves to 6.8.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Memphis's win price; Tulane's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Memphis is favored, below it Tulane is, and each segment takes the favored team's color. Polymarket publishes a daily close, drawn as a line. As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Memphis vs Tulane game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Memphis vs Tulane market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Memphis and Tulane play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 16, 2026 at Tulane.
Who is favored?
The model projects Memphis by 12.8 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Memphis lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →