Memphis vs Charlotte
Memphis visit Charlotte in Week 5. The model favors Memphis by 30. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Memphis sits at 2.3 (63rd) against Charlotte at -27.3 (137th), a gap that projects Memphis by 27.2 points and assigns the model 95% to the visitor. The unit splits sharpen the read. Memphis pairs the 33rd offense with the 97th defense, while Charlotte ranks 137th on both sides, offering no lever to slow a top-35 offense or exploit a soft Memphis back seven.
The market is more cautious than the model. The consensus line of Charlotte +20.5 implies 89% for Memphis, nearly seven points shy of the projected margin, and the total sits at 53.3. The ProphetX exchange leans further toward the favorite, offering Memphis -1150 (92%) against Charlotte +900 (10%). That leaves the model's 95% above every market read, the kind of spread between projection and price worth noting.
Season context reinforces the direction. Memphis projects to 8.1 wins with a 5% Playoff path, Charlotte to 1.5 wins with none. Memphis is 3-1, its only loss 20-38 at Boise State, with wins over UNLV, Arkansas State and UT Martin. Charlotte is 0-4, including 7-34 to Louisiana and a 41-43 loss to The Citadel. Memphis leads the series 2-0 and took the 2024 meeting 33-28.
Model, market and exchange all point one way; Memphis's 95% projection sits above even the exchange's 92% price.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Memphis's win price; Charlotte's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Memphis is favored, below it Charlotte is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Memphis vs Charlotte game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Memphis vs Charlotte market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Memphis and Charlotte play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Charlotte.
Who is favored?
The model projects Memphis by 30 (97% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Memphis lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →