Maryland vs UConn
Maryland visit UConn in Week 2. The model favors Maryland by 10.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Maryland 9.1 (37th) against UConn at -6.3 (89th), a gap of more than 15 points that projects Maryland by 13. The model gives Maryland a 78 percent win probability while the consensus of two books implies 77 percent at UConn +12.3, so model and market sit within a point of each other. The projected margin of 13 lands just inside the market spread of 12.3, leaving little daylight between the two views, with the total set at 52.5.
The unit ranks explain the lean: Maryland grades 50th on offense and 30th on defense, while UConn checks in 93rd and 95th, trailing on both sides. Series history is thin but lopsided, the only prior meeting a 50-7 Maryland win in 2024. Early results echo the ratings, with Maryland opening 62-0 over Hampton and UConn taking Lafayette 56-7, both blowouts against lighter competition that leave the projection resting on the model.
Season simulations frame two similar profiles: Maryland projects to 6.6 wins with a 4.8 percent Playoff chance, UConn to 6.4 wins at 0.2 percent, and neither carries real title equity at 0.2 and 0 percent. The distance here is the class gap on paper, and with model and market aligned on Maryland near 78 percent, the contract offers agreement rather than an obvious edge.
Model and market both price Maryland near 77 to 78 percent, and a 15-point ratings edge backs the road favorite.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Maryland's win price; UConn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Maryland is favored, below it UConn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Maryland vs UConn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Maryland vs UConn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Maryland and UConn play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at UConn.
Who is favored?
The model projects Maryland by 10.7 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Maryland lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →