Maryland vs Nebraska
Maryland visit Nebraska in Week 5. The model favors Nebraska by 19.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in near lockstep on this one. SP+ separates the teams by 13 rating points, Nebraska at 16.9 (15th) against Maryland at 3.9 (55th), and projects Nebraska by 15.4. The consensus line of Nebraska -14.5 sits just inside that number, with the total at 52.5. Win probabilities barely diverge: the model gives Nebraska 82 percent, the market-implied figure reads 81 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices Nebraska at -570, or 85 percent, leaving Maryland +530 at 16 percent. There is no meaningful edge in the pricing.
The unit ranks reinforce the gap on both sides of the ball. Nebraska grades 20th on offense and 22nd on defense; Maryland sits 56th and 54th. Recent form is lopsided too: Nebraska is 4-0, including 31-13 at Michigan State, while Maryland is 2-2 with a 26-35 loss to Virginia Tech and a 3-54 defeat to UCLA. The series offers the only counterweight, tied 1-1, with Nebraska taking last year's meeting 34-31 by three.
The season simulations frame the stakes: Nebraska projects to 8.3 wins with a 23.5 percent Playoff chance, against Maryland's 5.2 wins and 0.4 percent. The one loose thread is that a projected 15.4-point margin against a 34-31 series history hints at more variance than the price allows.
Model, market and exchange all converge on Nebraska by roughly two touchdowns, and the numbers give no reason to argue.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Maryland's win price; Nebraska's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Maryland is favored, below it Nebraska is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Maryland vs Nebraska game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Maryland vs Nebraska market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Maryland and Nebraska play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Nebraska.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nebraska by 19.9 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Nebraska lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →