Jacksonville State vs Ohio
Jacksonville State visit Ohio in Week 2. The model favors Jacksonville State by 7.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit on opposite sides here. SP+ rates Jacksonville State at -7 (91st) against Ohio at -16.4 (124th), a 9.4-point ratings gap that projects the visitor by 7 and assigns it a 66% win probability. The consensus line inverts that read, posting Ohio -2.5 with a 50.5 total and a 56% implied edge, and the ProphetX exchange agrees at Ohio -132 (57%) versus Jacksonville State +122 (45%). That leaves roughly 22 points of win-probability daylight between the model and the traded price.
The unit ranks favor the visitor on both lines: Jacksonville State's offense (#80) and defense (#104) each outrank Ohio's #130 offense and #91 defense. Season projections lean the same way, 7.1 wins for Jacksonville State against 5.7 for Ohio, though neither profiles as a contender at 1.1% and 0.1% to reach the Playoff. Series history cuts the other direction: the lone 2024 meeting went to Ohio 30-27.
Results add texture. Jacksonville State split, falling 7-33 at North Dakota State before a 49-7 handling of Eastern Kentucky, while Ohio opened 21-49 at Nebraska. The market prices a home tilt the ratings do not support.
Model backs Jacksonville State at 66% while the market and exchange price Ohio near 56-57%, a wide gap the ratings and unit ranks favor the visitor to close.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Jacksonville State's win price; Ohio's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Jacksonville State is favored, below it Ohio is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Jacksonville State vs Ohio game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Jacksonville State vs Ohio market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Jacksonville State and Ohio play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Ohio.
Who is favored?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 7.1 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →