Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State visit Kennesaw State in Week 6. The model favors Jacksonville State by 8.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these C-USA teams by a wide 9.5-point ratings gap, with Jacksonville State at -2.2 (rank 77) and Kennesaw State at -11.7 (rank 113). The model projects Jacksonville State by 7.1 and assigns it a 67% win probability. The market is far more cautious: Kennesaw State sits at +3 with a 43% implied chance, while the ProphetX exchange prices Jacksonville State at -142 (59%) and Kennesaw State at +138 (42%). That leaves roughly 24 points of win-probability daylight between the model and the consensus line, the kind of disagreement that defines the contract.
The unit ranks favor the visitor across the board: Jacksonville State grades #70 offense and #87 defense against Kennesaw State's #108 and #101. Season form tracks that edge. Jacksonville State is 3-2 with wins over Eastern Kentucky (49-7), Georgia Southern (31-27) and Middle Tennessee (23-13), while Kennesaw State is 1-3, its lone win a 47-0 shutout of West Georgia against losses to Georgia State, Tennessee (9-42) and Arkansas State (14-17).
The series is tight at 3-4, but the last meeting in 2025 went to Jacksonville State 35-26. Projected win totals reinforce the split: 7.7 for Jacksonville State versus 4.8 for Kennesaw State, with neither carrying Playoff equity. The number to watch is the total at 48.5.
Model sees Jacksonville State by 7.1 and a 67% favorite, well clear of the market's 57%, leaving a wide gap on the visitor's price.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Jacksonville State's win price; Kennesaw State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Jacksonville State is favored, below it Kennesaw State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 7, 2026 at Kennesaw State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 8.8 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kennesaw State lead 4-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →