Iowa State vs Iowa
Iowa State visit Iowa in Week 2. The model favors Iowa by 13.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Iowa at 14.6 (22nd) and Iowa State at -0.4 (69th), a 15-point ratings gap that projects Iowa by 17.4 and gives the home side an 85% win probability. The market is more restrained: Iowa -11.5 implies a 76% win, leaving almost six points and nine probability points between model and price. Unit ranks back Iowa across the board, with the defense 16th and offense 35th against an Iowa State offense ranked 96th and defense 47th.
Series and recent form temper that confidence. Iowa leads 7-4 all time, but Iowa State took the last meeting 16-13 in 2025, a low-scoring result that fits the tight 41.5 total. Season simulations still separate the programs: Iowa projects 7.6 wins with an 18% Playoff chance and 1.1% title odds against a market-implied 0.8%, while Iowa State projects 5.5 wins, a 1.2% Playoff chance and no title equity. The model and market agree on the winner and disagree only on the size of the edge.
Model likes Iowa well beyond the market number, but the 2025 upset and a 41.5 total argue for caution laying the points.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Iowa State's win price; Iowa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Iowa State is favored, below it Iowa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Iowa State vs Iowa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa State vs Iowa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Iowa State and Iowa play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Iowa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa by 13.9 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Iowa lead 7-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →