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Matchup preview

Illinois vs Michigan State

Illinois visit Michigan State in Week 6. The model favors Illinois by 7.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
67%
33%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ separates these teams clearly: Illinois rates 8.5 (41st) against Michigan State's 0.3 (67th), and the model projects Illinois by 5.8 with a 64 percent win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing Michigan State at +2.5 and a 44 percent chance, with the total at 47.8. On the ProphetX exchange Illinois sits at -130 (57 percent) and Michigan State at +125 (44 percent), so the model's edge on the favorite runs roughly 7 to 8 points of probability past the consensus line.

The unit ranks reinforce the gap. Illinois brings the 24th offense against a Michigan State defense ranked 58th, while the Spartan offense (80th) faces an Illinois defense at 69th. Series history leans Illinois 3-1, including a 38-16 win in the 2024 meeting.

Results this season cut both ways: Illinois is 2-3 with losses to Duke, Ohio State and Purdue, but Michigan State is 2-3 on a three-game skid, falling 10-27, 13-31 and 3-31. Projected wins favor Illinois 5.1 to 4.4.

Model and exchange both land near a 57-64 percent Illinois read, leaving Michigan State's +125 the thinner side of a priced gap.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
ILL -2.5
Total (O/U)
48.3
Favorite
ILL
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#48SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#88
#30FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#66
1595EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1409
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
IllinoisMichigan Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Illinois lead 3-1
20162024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
38-16
Illinois
at Illinois
2022
23-15
Michigan State
at Illinois
2019
37-34
Illinois
at Michigan State
2016
31-27
Illinois
at Illinois
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Illinois vs Michigan State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Illinois vs Michigan State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Illinois and Michigan State play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Michigan State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Illinois by 7.4 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Illinois lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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