Redshirt
Matchup preview

Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern visit Coastal Carolina in Week 5. The model favors Georgia Southern by 1.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
54%
46%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#103SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#117
#102FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#121
1314EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1163
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Georgia SouthernCoastal Carolinasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Georgia Southern lead 5-4
Georgia Southern have won the last 3
20172025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
45-40
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2024
26-6
Georgia Southern
at Coastal Carolina
2023
38-28
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2022
34-30
Coastal Carolina
at Coastal Carolina
2021
28-8
Coastal Carolina
at Georgia Southern
2020
28-14
Coastal Carolina
at Coastal Carolina
2019
30-27
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2018
41-17
Georgia Southern
at Coastal Carolina
2017
28-17
Coastal Carolina
at Coastal Carolina
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Coastal Carolina.

Who is favored?

The model projects Georgia Southern by 1.5 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Georgia Southern lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →