Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern visit Coastal Carolina in Week 5. The model favors Georgia Southern by 4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a near dead heat: Georgia Southern at -8.6 (103rd) against Coastal Carolina at -11.4 (112th), a gap of 2.8 rating points that yields a projected margin of just 0.4 in Georgia Southern's favor and a 51 to 49 split. The market is firmer, pricing Coastal Carolina at +2.5 with a 54.3 total and an implied 56 to 44 read for Georgia Southern. The ProphetX exchange sits between the two, offering Georgia Southern -121 (55%) and Coastal Carolina +117 (46%).
The unit ranks explain the lean. The offenses are effectively matched at 95th and 96th, so the separation comes on defense, where Georgia Southern ranks 104th and Coastal Carolina 119th. That edge, plus the modest rating gap, tilts both the consensus line and the exchange toward the visitor even as the model holds near even.
History reinforces the side: Coastal Carolina is 0-3 all-time against Georgia Southern, most recently a 45-40 loss in 2025. Both enter at 1-3, and the season simulations project 5.1 wins for Georgia Southern and 4.7 for Coastal Carolina, with neither given Playoff or title equity. With model and market agreeing on direction, the disagreement is only in degree.
Model calls it a coin flip while both the books and the exchange lean Georgia Southern, leaving little edge on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Georgia Southern's win price; Coastal Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Georgia Southern is favored, below it Coastal Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Coastal Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia Southern by 4 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia Southern lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →