Florida Atlantic vs Army
Florida Atlantic visit Army in Week 7. The model favors Army by 6.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ gives Florida Atlantic the better rating at 0.1 (69th) against Army at -0.9 (74th), yet still lands on Army by 1.4 points with a 53 percent win probability, a narrow edge driven by the host side of the ledger. The market pushes harder toward Army: the consensus line of -2.7 implies 56 percent, and ProphetX offers Army at -134 (57 percent) versus Florida Atlantic at +129 (44 percent). The model and the market agree on the favorite but disagree on size, with roughly a point separating projected margin from the posted number.
The ratings gap is thin and the unit ranks explain the coin-flip feel. Florida Atlantic pairs the 57th offense with the 95th defense, while Army counters with the 65th offense and 91st defense, so neither side owns a clear structural advantage and the total sits at 54.8. Series history is short but one-sided: Army holds a 1-0 edge after a 24-7 win in the 2024 meeting.
Season form tilts slightly to the visitor. Florida Atlantic is 4-1 with wins over Navy (38-30), Florida International (16-10), UL Monroe (45-17) and Texas Southern (66-10) around a 21-66 loss at Florida, and projects to 7.8 wins. Army sits 3-2 with tight results throughout: a 59-3 rout of Bryant, losses to South Florida (24-28) and Louisiana Tech (29-31), and one-score wins at Temple (21-17) and over Tulane (20-17), projecting to 6.6 wins. Playoff odds are negligible at 2.4 and 0.7 percent.
A genuine coin flip: the model likes Army by a point and a half, the market by closer to three, with both leaning host.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida Atlantic's win price; Army's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida Atlantic is favored, below it Army is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida Atlantic vs Army game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida Atlantic vs Army market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida Atlantic and Army play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Army.
Who is favored?
The model projects Army by 6.8 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Army lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →