Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State
Eastern Michigan visit Michigan State in Week 2. The model favors Michigan State by 23.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in the same place. SP+ rates Michigan State at 1 (71st) against Eastern Michigan at -15.6 (122nd), a gap that projects the Spartans by 19. The consensus line sits at Michigan State -17.5 with a 49.8 total, so the market prices roughly two points more cushion than the model. Win probabilities barely separate: SP+ gives Michigan State 88 percent, the line implies 86 percent, and ProphetX offers a Spartans price of -770, or 89 percent. Eastern Michigan clears 12 to 14 percent across all three inputs.
The unit ranks tell the same story: Michigan State grades 60th on offense and 66th on defense, Eastern Michigan 121st and 112th. Results add little friction. Michigan State opened with a 30-20 win over Toledo, while Eastern Michigan split, beating Sacramento State 28-17 before falling to San Jose State 21-27. The lone series meeting, a 73-14 Michigan State rout in 2014, is old enough to be noise. Season sims are nearly level (5.4 projected wins for the Spartans, 5.7 for the Eagles), a reminder this edge is matchup-specific, not a talent chasm.
The two-point spread between the model margin and the market line is the only crack, and it leans toward the underdog covering rather than winning.
Model, line, and exchange all cluster near a three-score Michigan State win, with the only edge being the market's extra two points of spread.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Eastern Michigan's win price; Michigan State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Eastern Michigan is favored, below it Michigan State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Eastern Michigan and Michigan State play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Michigan State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan State by 23.6 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Michigan State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →