Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan visit Massachusetts in Week 5. The model favors Massachusetts by 5.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market agree on direction but not magnitude. The model rates Massachusetts (-6.2, rank 93) nearly 12 points clear of Eastern Michigan (-18, rank 127) and projects a 14.2-point home win at 81% probability. The consensus line sets Massachusetts -6.2 with a 48.8 total, implying just 65%, and the ProphetX exchange offers Massachusetts -220 (69%) against Eastern Michigan +205 (33%). That gap between an 81% model read and a 65% to 69% market read is the trade to price.
The unit ranks back the favorite: Massachusetts holds edges on both offense (#101 to #127) and defense (#82 to #110). Form reinforces it. Massachusetts is 4-0, all by double digits, including 37-21 at Rutgers and 35-6 at Sacramento State. Eastern Michigan is 2-3, with wins over Sacramento State and Lindenwood and blowout road losses at Michigan State (7-35) and Wisconsin (10-54). Season simulations split them cleanly at 9 projected wins to 4.8.
The lone counterweight is the series: Eastern Michigan is 2-0 against Massachusetts and took the 2024 meeting 28-14. Ratings, form and both simulations point one way while the market shades more cautious than the model.
Model likes Massachusetts far more than the market: 81% and a 14.2-point projection against a 65% line and 69% on the exchange.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Massachusetts.
Who is favored?
The model projects Massachusetts by 5.9 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Eastern Michigan lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →