East Carolina vs UAB
East Carolina visit UAB in Week 7. The model favors East Carolina by 4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these two by 11.5 points of rating, with East Carolina at -1.3 (rank 80) and UAB at -12.8 (rank 115). That gap drives a projected East Carolina margin of 9.1 points and a 71% model win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line of UAB +4.3 implies 60% for East Carolina and 40% for UAB, while the ProphetX exchange sits in between at -178 (64%) for East Carolina and +172 (37%) for UAB. Every source points the same direction, but the model prices East Carolina roughly seven points higher than the two-book consensus.
The unit ranks reinforce the lean. East Carolina's defense (#51) is the strongest unit on the field, and its offense (#98) still outranks UAB on both sides (#114 offense, #111 defense). The results back the ratings: East Carolina is 3-2 with wins over Old Dominion, North Carolina Central and Rice, while UAB is 3-3, splitting its six games and losing by 25 at Illinois and 25 at Memphis.
Season simulations give East Carolina 6.9 projected wins against UAB's 5.4, neither with Playoff equity. The disagreement to trade is the margin: a total of 47.5 against a projected nine-point edge.
The model reads East Carolina as the clearer side at 71%, well above the exchange's 64% and the market's 60%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as East Carolina's win price; UAB's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line East Carolina is favored, below it UAB is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the East Carolina vs UAB game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the East Carolina vs UAB market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do East Carolina and UAB play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 15, 2026 at UAB.
Who is favored?
The model projects East Carolina by 4 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →