Duke vs Illinois
Duke visit Illinois in Week 2. The model favors Illinois by 6.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by less than a point, rating Illinois 7.5 (42nd) against Duke 6.6 (45th), and the model turns that edge into a 58-42 lean with a projected Illinois margin of 3.3. The market is more committed to the home side: the consensus line sits at Illinois -5.7 with an implied 64-36 split, and the ProphetX exchange goes further still at Illinois -210 (68%) versus Duke +198 (34%). That is a roughly 10-point probability gap between model and exchange, framing Duke as the value side for anyone trading the rating.
The unit profile reinforces how thin the divide is. Both offenses rank 34th, and the defenses sit close together, Illinois 60th and Duke 63rd, so neither side owns a clear structural advantage. Series history is the outlier: Duke is 0-1 against Illinois, having lost the 2025 meeting 45-19. Early results give both teams a win, Duke shutting down Tulane 17-3 and Illinois handling UAB 42-23, a higher-scoring showing that fits the 51.5 total.
The season simulations tilt the other way. Across 10,000 runs Duke projects to 7.2 wins with a 4.9% Playoff chance, ahead of Illinois at 6.3 wins and 3.4%, while both carry 0.1% title equity and Illinois draws just 0.7% in the market. The single-game price favors Illinois; the broader outlook quietly prefers Duke.
The model calls it a coin flip leaning Illinois by 3.3, but the market and exchange price the home side far harder, leaving Duke as the value.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Duke's win price; Illinois's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Duke is favored, below it Illinois is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Duke vs Illinois game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Duke vs Illinois market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Duke and Illinois play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Illinois.
Who is favored?
The model projects Illinois by 6.5 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Illinois lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →