Delaware vs Vanderbilt
Delaware visit Vanderbilt in Week 2. The model favors Vanderbilt by 20.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit almost on top of each other here. SP+ gives Vanderbilt a 91 percent win probability against Delaware's 9 percent, while the consensus line implies 90-10 and the ProphetX exchange offers Delaware +970 (9 percent) against Vanderbilt -1150 (92 percent). The only real spread of opinion is on margin: SP+ projects Vanderbilt by 22.1, the market sets the number at 20.7, a 1.4-point gap that leans slightly toward Delaware.
The ratings gap explains the pricing. Vanderbilt grades at 12.1 (27th) against Delaware's -7.6 (99th), a near 20-point separation reinforced by unit ranks: Vanderbilt's offense at 16 and defense at 44 both clear Delaware's 79 and 111. The total is posted at 54.8. Both teams enter 1-0, Vanderbilt past Austin Peay 28-9 and Delaware past Merrimack 42-7, results that do little to close the class-of-competition distance.
The simulations frame modest stakes for both. Delaware projects to 6.7 wins with a 1 percent Playoff chance, Vanderbilt to 6.8 wins with 8.7 percent to reach the Playoff and 0.4 percent to win the title, the latter close to the market's 0.7 percent. Neither number suggests this is more than a heavy favorite protecting form against a two-tier ratings underdog.
Model and market both price Vanderbilt near 90 percent, with only the margin, 20.7 versus 22.1, in dispute.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Delaware's win price; Vanderbilt's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Delaware is favored, below it Vanderbilt is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Delaware vs Vanderbilt game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Delaware vs Vanderbilt market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Delaware and Vanderbilt play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Vanderbilt.
Who is favored?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 20.2 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →