Charlotte vs North Texas
Charlotte visit North Texas in Week 6. The model favors North Texas by 27.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these American teams by 21.6 rating points, Charlotte at -27.3 (137th) against North Texas at -5.7 (91st), and translates that into a 93% win probability and a projected North Texas margin of 24. The market leans harder: the consensus line of -28.2 and a 57.8 total imply 96%, while the ProphetX exchange prices North Texas at -3200 (97%) and Charlotte at +2400 (4%). The four-point gap between the market line and the model margin is the only real disagreement here.
The unit ranks explain the spread. North Texas owns the lone above-average group, its offense at 47th, pointed at a Charlotte defense ranked 137th. The reverse pairing offers Charlotte little: its offense also sits 137th against a North Texas defense at 120th. The series is nominally close at Charlotte 2-1, but the 2025 meeting went to North Texas 54-20.
Results reinforce the ratings. Charlotte is winless across five games, falling to The Citadel 41-43, Ole Miss 9-41, App State 21-26, Louisiana 7-34 and Memphis 8-59, consistent with a 1.4-win projection. North Texas is 3-2, beating UNLV 44-6, Houston Christian 63-14 and Tulsa 45-44, tracking toward 7 projected wins and 0.7% title odds.
Model and market agree North Texas dominates, though the market's 28.2 line sits above SP+'s 24-point projection.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Charlotte's win price; North Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Charlotte is favored, below it North Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Charlotte vs North Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Charlotte vs North Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Charlotte and North Texas play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at North Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects North Texas by 27.2 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Charlotte lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →