Central Michigan vs Ohio
Central Michigan visit Ohio in Week 6. The model favors Ohio by 17.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clearer Ohio edge than the market will price. The Bobcats rate -10.5 (109th) against Central Michigan at -18.7 (129th), an 8.2-point ratings gap that the model stretches to a projected 10.6-point margin and a 74% win probability. The consensus line of Ohio -3 with a 46.3 total implies just 57%, and the ProphetX exchange sits close to that at Ohio -142 (59%) versus Central Michigan +134 (43%). The disagreement is the story: roughly 15 points of win-probability separate the model from the tradable price.
Unit ranks explain the lean without flattering either side. Ohio pairs the 105th offense with the 101st defense; Central Michigan counters with the 136th offense and 100th defense, so the separation is almost entirely on the offensive line of the ledger. Season results are mixed for both: Central Michigan is 3-2 with wins over Colgate, Wyoming and Akron but blowout losses at New Mexico (7-38) and Miami (3-52), while Ohio is 3-2 with a 13-10 win at Kent State and a narrow 36-41 loss at South Alabama.
Series history tilts the other way, with Central Michigan holding a 5-2 edge, though the 2024 meeting went to Ohio 27-25. Full-season simulations project Ohio at 7.2 wins to Central Michigan's 6.1, neither with a meaningful Playoff path.
The model's 74% Ohio read sits well ahead of the 57% to 59% market and exchange price, flagging a gap on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Central Michigan's win price; Ohio's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Central Michigan is favored, below it Ohio is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Central Michigan vs Ohio game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Central Michigan vs Ohio market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Central Michigan and Ohio play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Ohio.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio by 17.6 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Central Michigan lead 5-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →