Buffalo vs Toledo
Buffalo visit Toledo in Week 6. The model favors Toledo by 16.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market read this one the same way. SP+ rates Toledo at 0.3 (68th) against Buffalo at -17.2 (124th), a 17.5-point ratings gap that drives a projected Toledo margin of 19.9 and an 89% win probability. The consensus line sits a shade stronger at Toledo -21 with a 54.8 total, implying 90%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to -1150, or 92%. The 11% to 10% to 9% progression on Buffalo across model, books and exchange leaves no daylight to work with: every source lands in the same narrow band.
The series history is the only number that cuts the other way. Buffalo holds a 4-1 edge and won the 2024 meeting 30-15, but the unit ranks explain the current pricing. Toledo grades out at 67th on offense and 68th on defense, while Buffalo sits 129th and 107th, a two-sided deficit the ratings already absorb.
Form reinforces it. Toledo is 4-1, with the lone loss 20-30 at Michigan State and wins up to 63-10 and 49-48. Buffalo is 2-3, its wins over UAlbany (21-17) and Robert Morris (31-28) both one-score, with a 13-55 loss at Penn State. Projections split the season too: 9.1 wins to 5.2.
Model, books and exchange all pin Toledo near 90%, and the 17.5-point ratings gap plus 4-1 form back the price.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Buffalo's win price; Toledo's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Buffalo is favored, below it Toledo is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Buffalo vs Toledo game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Buffalo vs Toledo market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Buffalo and Toledo play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Toledo.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 16.4 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Buffalo lead 4-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →