Matchup preview
Buffalo vs Toledo
Buffalo visit Toledo in Week 6. The model favors Toledo by 15.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#95SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#48
#116FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#52
1298EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1646
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Buffalo lead 4-1
20182024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
When do Buffalo and Toledo play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Toledo.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 15.9 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Buffalo lead 4-1 over the meetings in our records.