Bowling Green vs Nebraska
Bowling Green visit Nebraska in Week 2. The model favors Nebraska by 38.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market land in the same place and only quibble over how wide it gets. SP+ separates these teams by nearly 25 rating points, Nebraska at 12.1 (28th) against Bowling Green at -12.8 (112th), and projects the Huskers by 27.3 with a 95 percent win probability. The consensus line pushes it further to Nebraska -29.7 with a 51.8 total, implying 96 percent, and the ProphetX exchange is more lopsided still at -5250 for Nebraska against +2500 on Bowling Green, an implied 98 to 4 split.
The unit ranks explain the two-plus point gap between the model margin and the market number. Nebraska grades out balanced at 28th on offense and 31st on defense, while Bowling Green sits 126th on offense and 84th on defense, so the market is pricing the Husker offense against the softer of the two Bowling Green units. Early results echo the ratings: Nebraska opened with a 49-21 win over Ohio, Bowling Green fell 13-20 to Tarleton State.
Season projections reinforce the tiers, 7.1 wins and 9.2 percent Playoff odds for Nebraska against 5.2 wins and 0.2 percent for Bowling Green. The disagreement is narrow: the market asks for 29.7, the model offers 27.3, so any value on Bowling Green lives in that 2.4-point cushion.
Model and market agree on a Nebraska rout; the only debate is whether -29.7 asks 2.4 points more than the projected 27.3 margin.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Bowling Green's win price; Nebraska's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Bowling Green is favored, below it Nebraska is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Bowling Green vs Nebraska game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Bowling Green vs Nebraska market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Bowling Green and Nebraska play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Nebraska.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nebraska by 38.9 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →