Ball State vs Northwestern
Ball State visit Northwestern in Week 6. The model favors Northwestern by 36.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch and the market agrees. The ratings gap is enormous: Northwestern at 7.3 (rank 50) against Ball State at -25 (rank 135), yielding a model win probability of 98% to 2% and a projected Northwestern margin of 34.7. The consensus line across two books sits slightly steeper at Northwestern -36.7, with a total of 52.5 and implied odds of 99% to 1%. The two-point spread between model margin and market line is the only real daylight here, with the price leaning marginally harder on Northwestern than the numbers demand.
Unit ranks reinforce the separation. Ball State grades #133 on both offense and defense, while Northwestern sits #59 offensively and #34 defensively. Season results track the ratings: Ball State is 1-4 with blowout losses at Ohio State (3-56) and Liberty (15-51), its lone win 41-17 over Stony Brook. Northwestern is 3-1, including a 41-7 handling of Colorado and a 34-13 win over Penn State, with the only blemish 23-29 at Indiana. Simulations project 3.4 wins for Ball State and 7 for Northwestern, which carries 2.6% Playoff odds to Ball State's zero.
The series offers one data point: Ball State is 0-1 against Northwestern, the 2015 meeting a tighter 24-19 than any current number would suggest. That history is too thin and too dated to move a projection this lopsided.
Model and market both price a Northwestern rout; the only gap is a two-point spread between the 34.7 projection and the -36.7 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ball State's win price; Northwestern's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ball State is favored, below it Northwestern is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ball State vs Northwestern game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ball State vs Northwestern market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ball State and Northwestern play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Northwestern.
Who is favored?
The model projects Northwestern by 36.2 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Northwestern lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →