Auburn vs Tennessee
Auburn visit Tennessee in Week 5. The model favors Tennessee by 13.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these SEC teams by 6.3 points, rating Tennessee 17.7 (14th) against Auburn 11.4 (31st), and turns that into a 70% Tennessee win probability with a projected margin of 8.7. The consensus line of Tennessee -7 implies 66%, so the model sits slightly ahead of the two-book price. The ProphetX exchange leans further, offering Tennessee at -265 (73%) and Auburn at +240 (29%), bracketing the model read from the other side. The total is posted at 54.3.
The unit splits set up a cross-matchup: Auburn's defense ranks 16th against Tennessee's 14th offense, while Tennessee's 26th defense faces Auburn's 53rd offense, pointing to where the projected edge originates. Results reinforce the ratings. Tennessee is 3-1 with wins over Furman (56-9), at Georgia Tech (45-24) and Kennesaw State (42-9), and a 17-20 loss to Texas. Auburn is 3-1, surviving Baylor 17-16 and Vanderbilt 21-15, routing Southern Miss 43-8, and falling to Florida 39-44.
Season-long, the simulation gives Tennessee 7.9 projected wins, a 23% Playoff chance and 1.6% title odds, against Auburn's 6.7 wins, 5.1% Playoff and 0.3% title. Both carry 0.8% market title odds, leaving Tennessee's model title number the outlier worth noting.
SP+ and the exchange both frame this as a clear Tennessee hold, and the model projects a touch wider than the consensus line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Auburn vs Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Auburn vs Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Auburn and Tennessee play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tennessee by 13.8 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →