Arizona vs West Virginia
Arizona visit West Virginia in Week 6. The model favors Arizona by 13.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 sides by 9.3 points, Arizona at 10.7 (33rd) against West Virginia at 1.4 (64th), and projects Arizona by 6.9. The model puts Arizona at 66 percent, well clear of the consensus +3 line that implies 57 percent and the ProphetX exchange price of -152, or 60 percent. That is a consistent lean: both market reads sit below the model, leaving daylight on the Arizona side.
The unit splits point the same way. Arizona grades out 32nd on offense and 38th on defense, a balanced profile, while West Virginia pairs a 43rd offense with a defense ranked 92nd. The total of 61.3 fits a game where West Virginia must keep pace through a soft stop unit rather than control it.
Form reinforces the ratings. Arizona is 4-1 with wins over Northern Illinois 42-17, Washington State 34-24 and Cincinnati 34-7, its lone loss 17-28 at BYU. West Virginia is 3-2, beating Virginia 38-27 but conceding 41 to Oklahoma State and 45 at Iowa State. The series favors the home side, which took the 2024 meeting 31-26, the only prior result.
Model, market and exchange all tilt to Arizona, with SP+ at 66 percent pricing the most daylight over the 57 to 60 percent reads.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona's win price; West Virginia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona is favored, below it West Virginia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona vs West Virginia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona vs West Virginia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona and West Virginia play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at West Virginia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Arizona by 13.2 (79% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
West Virginia lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →