Akron vs Central Michigan
Akron visit Central Michigan in Week 5. The model favors Central Michigan by 10.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market read this one nearly identically. SP+ separates the teams by 4.4 points, rating Central Michigan -18.7 (rank 129) against Akron -23.1 (rank 132), and projects the Chippewas by 6.8 with a 66% win probability. That lines up almost exactly with the consensus Central Michigan -6.5 and total 46.8, which imply 65%. The ProphetX exchange pushes slightly further, pricing Central Michigan at -225 (69%) and Akron at +215 (32%). Across three sources the gap is at most four points of implied probability, so the number itself offers no obvious dislocation.
Unit ranks favor the host narrowly: Central Michigan's defense (#100) is the only side ranked inside 130, while both offenses (Akron #130, Central Michigan #136) and Akron's defense (#130) sit near the floor. Form is mixed, with Akron 1-3 and Central Michigan 2-2, both blown out on the road and both winning at home. The series is even at 1-1, and Akron took the last meeting 28-22 in 2025, a note the ratings do not capture.
Season simulations project 5.7 wins for Central Michigan and 3.8 for Akron, with neither team given any Playoff or title equity.
Model, consensus line and exchange all converge on Central Michigan by roughly a touchdown, leaving little edge to trade.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Akron's win price; Central Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Akron is favored, below it Central Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Akron vs Central Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Akron vs Central Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Akron and Central Michigan play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Central Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Central Michigan by 10.8 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Central Michigan lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →