Oregon's 2026 national title contract carries a model fair value of 10.3%, and the cheapest price is 11c on Kalshi. The market prices Oregon roughly 0.7 points above the model, a modest premium rather than an edge in either direction.
Oregon ranks third on the national title board, trailing Ohio State at 11.4% and Notre Dame at 11.2% and sitting just ahead of Texas at 9.6% and Georgia at 9.1%. That places the Ducks squarely in the top tier without leading it.
Where does the model put Oregon's title value?
The model's fair value for Oregon is 10.3%, the anchor for reading every quoted price. Converting the best price of 11c to an implied probability lands near 11%, so the venue is asking for a small toll above the model number.
A 0.7-point gap is inside the noise the model treats as fair. There is no discount to capture and no premium large enough to fade with conviction. The read is a hold: the contract is priced about where the model expects it to be.
For context, the cleanest edges on the board come from contracts trading well over fair value or noticeably under it. Oregon is neither, which makes it a reference point for pricing the rest of the field rather than a standalone position.
How does Oregon stack up in the Big Ten?
Within the Big Ten, Ohio State leads on model fair value at 11.4%, with Oregon next at 10.3% and Indiana further back at 8.4%. Oregon is the conference's second-strongest number on the national title board.
The national title market is not a conference title market, so these figures measure championship equity rather than a direct Big Ten race. Still, the ordering signals how the model ranks the league's contenders on the widest stage.
Ohio State's 13c best price against a 11.4% fair value shows a similar small premium to Oregon's, so the two Big Ten leaders are priced with comparable tightness. Indiana, at 9c versus 8.4%, carries the same pattern one tier down.
Fair value across the top contenders
The chart below sets Oregon's 10.3% fair value against the rest of the board's leaders. It shows how tightly the top group is bunched: the gap from first to fifth spans barely two points.
That compression matters for pricing. When the leaders sit within a couple of points of each other, small moves in fair value or venue price can reorder the board, so the cheapest venue for each team is worth tracking.
Where the value sits on Oregon
The bottom line: Oregon's 11c best price on Kalshi runs marginally above the model's 10.3% fair value, so the contract is a hold near fair value rather than a value entry or a fade. Traders comparing venues can note the Kalshi FADE promo (trade $25, get up to $500) when weighing where to price the contract.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a 0.7-point gap is well inside that uncertainty. The more actionable edges on the current board live in contracts trading further from fair value; Oregon's role here is as a benchmark for the top tier.
The chart values and prices reflect the market as of the latest read. As liquidity and news move the board, the Oregon number is worth revisiting against the model rather than treated as fixed.
