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Matchup preview

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt

Tennessee visit Vanderbilt in Week 13. The model favors Tennessee by 8.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
69%
31%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
TENN -3
Total (O/U)
57.5
Favorite
TENN
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#10SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#39
#19FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#14
1787EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1880
1.2%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
TennesseeVanderbiltsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Tennessee lead 8-4
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
45-24
Vanderbilt
at Tennessee
2024
36-23
Tennessee
at Vanderbilt
2023
48-24
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2022
56-0
Tennessee
at Vanderbilt
2021
45-21
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2020
42-17
Tennessee
at Vanderbilt
2019
28-10
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2018
38-13
Vanderbilt
at Vanderbilt
2017
42-24
Vanderbilt
at Tennessee
2016
45-34
Vanderbilt
at Vanderbilt
2015
53-28
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2014
24-17
Tennessee
at Vanderbilt
More Week 13 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Tennessee vs Vanderbilt game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tennessee vs Vanderbilt market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Tennessee and Vanderbilt play?

Week 13 of 2026, on Nov 28, 2026 at Vanderbilt.

Who is favored?

The model projects Tennessee by 8.1 (69% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Tennessee lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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