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Matchup preview

NC State vs North Carolina

NC State visit North Carolina in Week 13. The model favors North Carolina by 1.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
45%
55%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
NCSU -1.5
Total (O/U)
55.5
Favorite
NCSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#57SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#59
#46FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#91
1605EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1320
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
NC StateNorth Carolinasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
NC State lead 9-3
NC State have won the last 5
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
42-19
NC State
at NC State
2024
35-30
NC State
at North Carolina
2023
39-20
NC State
at NC State
2022
30-27
NC State
at North Carolina
2021
34-30
NC State
at NC State
2020
48-21
North Carolina
at North Carolina
2019
41-10
North Carolina
at NC State
2018
34-28
NC State
at North Carolina
2017
33-21
NC State
at NC State
2016
28-21
NC State
at North Carolina
2015
45-34
North Carolina
at NC State
2014
35-7
NC State
at North Carolina
More Week 13 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the NC State vs North Carolina game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the NC State vs North Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do NC State and North Carolina play?

Week 13 of 2026, on Nov 28, 2026 at North Carolina.

Who is favored?

The model projects North Carolina by 1.9 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

NC State lead 9-3 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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