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Matchup preview

Kent State vs Bowling Green

Kent State visit Bowling Green in Week 11. The model favors Bowling Green by 5.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
37%
63%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Kent State36%-15 ptsvsBowling Green64%+15 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Kent State favoredBowling Green favoredOct 29Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kent State's win price; Bowling Green's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kent State is favored, below it Bowling Green is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#132SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#130
#133FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#112
1001EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1260
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Kent StateBowling Greensolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 6-6
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
24-21
Kent State
at Kent State
2024
27-6
Bowling Green
at Bowling Green
2023
49-19
Bowling Green
at Kent State
2022
40-6
Kent State
at Bowling Green
2021
27-20
Kent State
at Kent State
2020
62-24
Kent State
at Bowling Green
2019
62-20
Kent State
at Kent State
2018
35-28
Kent State
at Bowling Green
2017
44-16
Bowling Green
at Kent State
2016
42-7
Bowling Green
at Bowling Green
2015
48-0
Bowling Green
at Kent State
2014
30-20
Bowling Green
at Bowling Green
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Kent State vs Bowling Green game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kent State vs Bowling Green market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Kent State and Bowling Green play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 11, 2026 at Bowling Green.

Who is favored?

The model projects Bowling Green by 5.5 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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