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Matchup preview

James Madison vs Georgia Southern

James Madison visit Georgia Southern in Week 6. The model favors James Madison by 11.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
76%
24%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
JMU -7
Total (O/U)
51.5
Favorite
JMU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
0%25%50%75%100%James Madison favoredGeorgia Southern favoredSep 27Oct 1Oct 5Oct 8Oct 11

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as James Madison's win price; Georgia Southern's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line James Madison is favored, below it Georgia Southern is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#40SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#90
#27FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#102
1905EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1314
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
James MadisonGeorgia Southernsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 2-2
20222025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
35-10
James Madison
at James Madison
2024
28-14
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2023
41-13
James Madison
at James Madison
2022
45-38
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the James Madison vs Georgia Southern game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the James Madison vs Georgia Southern market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do James Madison and Georgia Southern play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Georgia Southern.

Who is favored?

The model projects James Madison by 11.6 (76% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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