Matchup preview
North Carolina vs Virginia
North Carolina visit Virginia in Week 12. The model favors Virginia by 20.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#91SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#31
#91FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#36
1320EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1637
0.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 6-6
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
When do North Carolina and Virginia play?
Week 12 of 2026, on Nov 21, 2026 at Virginia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Virginia by 20.1 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.