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New Mexico State vs Missouri State

New Mexico State visit Missouri State in Week 11. The model favors Missouri State by 0.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
48%
52%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#119SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#124
#126FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#109
1172EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1328
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
New Mexico StateMissouri Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Missouri State lead 1-0
20252025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
24-17
Missouri State
at New Mexico State
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the New Mexico State vs Missouri State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the New Mexico State vs Missouri State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do New Mexico State and Missouri State play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Missouri State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Missouri State by 0.7 (52% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Missouri State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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