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Matchup preview

Memphis vs South Florida

Memphis visit South Florida in Week 11. The model favors Memphis by 2.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
56%
44%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Memphis70%+12 ptsvsSouth Florida30%-12 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Memphis favoredSouth Florida favoredOct 31Nov 2Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Memphis's win price; South Florida's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Memphis is favored, below it South Florida is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#46SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#63
#57FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#25
1540EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1774
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
MemphisSouth Floridasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Memphis lead 7-1
Memphis have won the last 5
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
34-31
Memphis
at Memphis
2024
21-3
Memphis
neutral site
2023
59-50
Memphis
at Memphis
2020
34-33
Memphis
at Memphis
2019
49-10
Memphis
at South Florida
2016
49-42
South Florida
at Memphis
2015
24-17
Memphis
at South Florida
2014
31-20
Memphis
at Memphis
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Memphis vs South Florida game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Memphis vs South Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Memphis and South Florida play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 13, 2026 at South Florida.

Who is favored?

The model projects Memphis by 2.4 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Memphis lead 7-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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