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Matchup preview

Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

Georgia Southern visit Georgia State in Week 11. The model favors Georgia Southern by 16.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
84%
16%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#103SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#137
#102FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#129
1314EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1112
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Georgia SouthernGeorgia Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 6-6
Georgia Southern have won the last 3
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
41-24
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2024
38-21
Georgia Southern
at Georgia State
2023
44-27
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2022
41-33
Georgia State
at Georgia State
2021
21-14
Georgia State
at Georgia Southern
2020
30-24
Georgia State
at Georgia State
2019
38-10
Georgia Southern
at Georgia Southern
2018
35-14
Georgia Southern
at Georgia State
2017
21-17
Georgia State
at Georgia Southern
2016
30-24
Georgia State
at Georgia State
2015
34-7
Georgia State
at Georgia Southern
2014
69-31
Georgia Southern
at Georgia State
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Georgia Southern vs Georgia State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia Southern vs Georgia State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Georgia Southern and Georgia State play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Georgia State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Georgia Southern by 16.1 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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