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Matchup preview

Cincinnati vs Iowa State

Cincinnati visit Iowa State in Week 11. The model favors Cincinnati by 5.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
63%
37%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Cincinnati58%+3 ptsvsIowa State42%-3 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Cincinnati favoredIowa State favoredNov 2Nov 4Nov 6

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Cincinnati's win price; Iowa State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Cincinnati is favored, below it Iowa State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#49SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#76
#53FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#35
1471EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1629
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
CincinnatiIowa Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Iowa State lead 2-1
20232025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
38-30
Cincinnati
at Cincinnati
2024
34-17
Iowa State
at Iowa State
2023
30-10
Iowa State
at Cincinnati
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Cincinnati vs Iowa State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Cincinnati vs Iowa State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Cincinnati and Iowa State play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Iowa State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Cincinnati by 5.5 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Iowa State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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